v1-3: Desolation in Lebanon; the result of failing to trust in God.
v4-17: Worthless shepherds and the Great Shepherd.
v4: The children of Judah, the flock marked out for slaughter.
v5: The unfaithful under-shepherds;
- they feel no guilt, no pity towards those in their care;
- they are grateful for the benefit they receive from mistreating others.
v6: See 8.10; judgment from God. There is chaos, as each one falls into the hand of his neighbour.
v7: The Lord Himself is the chief shepherd; He has pastured the flock, although it remained marked for slaughter. He held the shepherd's staff, indicating His authority.
v8: Three under-shepherds dismissed; this may refer to three kings, Jehoahaz, Jehoiakim, and Jehoiachin. Still the whole flock rejected the Lord and His ways. The removal of the evil kings did not change the people's hearts.
v9-11: The relationship to be broken, the covenant broken, signified by Zechariah's broken staff.
v12-13: The pay for the hired shepherd; in the image, dismissed by the owner of the flock. There is a picture of enmity, which the Lord Jesus also endured, and was also sold for 30 pieces of silver.
v14: The brotherhood between Judah and Israel; this has long been a difficult relationship.
v15-16: The judgment for Israel and Judah is to endure the worthless shepherd, one who does not care for the sheep. It is possible that this may refer to Nebuchadnezzar, or one of the other Gentile kings who ruled over the whole region.
v17: The curse upon the worthless shepherd.
There is the clear lesson for those who would lead, that they are held accountable before God.